YTD ISSUERS159
YTD BONDS518
YTD CAPITAL$518.618B
REACHED FAIR VALUE53%227 bonds
AVG TIGHTENING AT FV–7.14 bp
MODEL SELECTIVITY~12% of new issues
YTD ISSUERS159
YTD BONDS518
YTD CAPITAL$518.618B
REACHED FAIR VALUE53%227 bonds
AVG TIGHTENING AT FV–7.14 bp
MODEL SELECTIVITY~12% of new issues
G-255Systematic Credit & Equity Intelligence
March 31, 2026Published: 06:00 EST
New Issue Credit Trading Model Recap · Published Weekly

G-255 New Issue Credit Trading Model
Monthly Recap — March 31, 2026

YTD Issuers: 159
YTD Bonds: 518
YTD Capital: $518.618 billion
Fair Value Reached: 53% (227 bonds)
Year-to-Date Snapshot
Total Issuers (YTD)
159
Total Bonds (YTD)
518
Total Capital (YTD)
$518.6B
Net New Debt Capital
$274.2B
Debt Retirement
$244.5B
Reached Fair Value
53%
227 of 518 bonds
Avg Spread Outside FV
+2.02 bp
Avg Tightening at FV
–7.14 bp
Per bond
Executive Summary

Through March 2026, G-255 USD new issuance totals 425 bonds from 159 issuers, raising $518.618 billion in market cap. The 425 bonds issued have traded +2.02 bp since issuance on average for those outside fair value. Of these, 227 bonds (53%) have reached the G-255 systematic trading model's fair value level with average tightening of –7.14 bp per bond that reached fair value across months.

The G-255 USD credit new issue trade indicators show net return of (–7.14 bp) overall when trade at fair value occurs while "buy and hold" of all 425 bonds has a negative return (+2.02 bp in credit spread) and deploys twice as much capital as the G-255 trading approach.

Over 55% of the bonds that reached fair value later traded at wider spreads, with 117 widening YTD. Supply is concentrated in global banks (128 bonds, $236.85 billion) and US TMT sectors (61 bonds, $214 billion).

Monthly Summaries
January 2026

January recorded 165 bonds issued by 62 issuers, raising $184.3 billion in market cap (net new supply $89 billion, third highest on record). The 165 bonds issued have traded +6.35 bp since issuance on average for those outside fair value. Financials accounted for 71% of issuance. Of the 165 bonds, 117 (71%) reached G-255 trading model fair value with average tightening of –7.23 bp per bond. 58 bonds remained outside fair value with average change of +7.14 bp per bond, and 97 (90% of reached bonds) later traded wider.

February 2026

February included 122 bonds issued by 45 issuers, totaling $151.018 billion in market cap. The 122 bonds issued have traded +5.07 bp since issuance on average for those outside fair value. 44 bonds (~35%) reached fair value with average tightening of –7.72 bp per bond. 78 bonds remain outside fair value with average change of +9.5 bp per bond, and 33 widened after trading to fair value. The 7 Oracle bonds increased the reach rate from ~27% (31/115) to ~31%; excluding them shows the underlying reach rate, with outside bonds averaging +8.87 bp change per bond.

March 2026 (through March 27)

March (first four weeks) included 138 bonds from 52 issuers, raising $183.25 billion in market cap. The 138 bonds issued have traded –6.31 bp since issuance on average. 66 bonds have reached model fair value levels and tightened by –6.7bp from new issue spread. Amazon (AMZN A1/AA 11 part $37 billion) printed 3/13/26 and Novartis (NOVNVX Aa3/A- 7 part $11 billion) printed 3/16/26 were both attractively priced according to the G-255 trading model. While the Salesforce Inc transaction ($25 billion over 8 trades during the week of March 13) have tightened by over –20bp the G-255 new issue trading model still sees 5 trades from that deal still have (–5bp) of credit spread tightening.

March Weekly Summaries
WeekBondsVolumeAvg Spread ΔReached FVAvg Tightening at FV
March 628$26.3B–2.28 bp9–7.67 bp
March 1358$108.95B–7.63 bp34–6.85 bp
March 2029$30.0B–9.97 bp19–6.85 bp
March 2723$18.05B–3.29 bp4–5.25 bp
Model Performance & Selectivity
  • The G-255 systematic model generates long indicators for only ~12% of new issues (which represent ~67% of total annual USD new debt capital).
  • When bonds are traded until they reach their avoid-trading level, the model has historically been successful 97% of the time.
January 2026 — Supply Not Reaching Fair Value
  • 48 bonds from 22 G-255 issuers totaling $75.6 billion did not reach G-255 new USD supply fair value within 44 trading days.
  • All but 6 issues were financials.
  • All but 6 issues were from parent companies adding net debt to their respective balance sheet as of 12/25.
  • On average, the 48 bonds trade +11.81bp wide of new issue spread and almost +18bp wide of fair trading value according to the G-255 new issue credit trading model.
Subscribe to G-255

Enter your email to access the complete New Supply Report, including all weekly indicator summaries, sector data, and full performance analysis.

Inquiries: Contact G-255 · Confidential · Institutional Use Only